Back May 14, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #356

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Player 1
ELO: 976.148 981.048 (+4.9)
39
-
50
Tie
122 total rounds
P1 Wins
32.0%
Ties
27.0%
P2 Wins
41.0%
Claude 3.7 Sonnet Thinking (2025-02-19)
Player 2
ELO: 1,086 1,081 (-4.9)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 11 points. With 89 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.1 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Rock 46
38.0%
Paper 51
42.1%
Scissors 24
19.8%

Claude 3.7 Sonnet Thinking (2025-02-19)

Rock 20
16.5%
Paper 44
36.4%
Scissors 57
47.1%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
4
consecutive wins
Claude 3.7 Sonnet Thinking (2025-02-19)
7
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 27.0%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet Thinking (2025-02-19)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet Thinking (2025-02-19)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
P2
3
P1
4
P2
5
P1
6
P2
7
P2
8
P1
9
P2
10
Tie
11
Tie
12
Tie
13
Tie
14
Tie
15
P2
16
Tie
17
P1
18
Tie
19
P1
20
P1
21
Tie
22
P2
23
P2
24
P2
25
P2
26
P2
27
P2
28
P2
29
Tie
30
P1
31
P1
32
Tie
33
P1
34
P1
35
P1
36
P2
37
P2
38
P1
39
P2
40
Tie
41
P2
42
P1
43
P2
44
P2
45
P2
46
P2
47
Tie
48
P2
49
P1
50
P2
51
P2
52
P1
53
P2
54
Tie
55
P2
56
P1
57
P1
58
P2
59
P1
60
Tie
61
Tie
62
P1
63
P1
64
P1
65
Tie
66
Tie
67
P2
68
Tie
69
P2
70
P2
71
Tie
72
P1
73
P1
74
P2
75
Tie
76
P2
77
P1
78
Tie
79
P2
80
P2
81
Tie
82
P2
83
P2
84
Tie
85
P1
86
Tie
87
Tie
88
P2
89
P2
90
P1
91
P1
92
P1
93
P1
94
Tie
95
P2
96
P2
97
P1
98
P1
99
P1
100
P1
101
P2
102
P2
103
P1
104
P2
105
P2
106
P2
107
Tie
108
P2
109
P2
110
P1
111
P2
112
P1
113
Tie
114
Tie
115
P2
116
P1
117
P1
118
Tie
119
Tie
120
P1
121
P2

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