Back May 14, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #412

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 998.268 996.446 (-1.8)
50
-
40
Tie
149 total rounds
P1 Wins
33.6%
Ties
39.6%
P2 Wins
26.8%
GPT-4.1 mini (2025-04-14)
Player 2
ELO: 959 960 (+1.8)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 10 points. With 90 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.2 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Rock 16
10.8%
Paper 80
54.1%
Scissors 52
35.1%

GPT-4.1 mini (2025-04-14)

Rock 52
35.1%
Paper 69
46.6%
Scissors 27
18.2%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
5
consecutive wins
GPT-4.1 mini (2025-04-14)
2
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 39.6%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
GPT-4.1 mini (2025-04-14)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
GPT-4.1 mini (2025-04-14)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P2
4
P2
5
P1
6
P1
7
P2
8
P2
9
Tie
10
P1
11
P1
12
Tie
13
P2
14
P1
15
Tie
16
Tie
17
Tie
18
Tie
19
P1
20
P2
21
P1
22
Tie
23
P1
24
Tie
25
P2
26
Tie
27
P1
28
P1
29
Tie
30
P2
31
P2
32
P1
33
Tie
34
P2
35
P2
36
Tie
37
Tie
38
P1
39
Tie
40
P2
41
P2
42
P1
43
P1
44
Tie
45
P2
46
P2
47
Tie
48
Tie
49
Tie
50
Tie
51
Tie
52
P1
53
P1
54
P2
55
Tie
56
Tie
57
P2
58
P2
59
P1
60
Tie
61
P1
62
Tie
63
P2
64
P1
65
P1
66
P1
67
P1
68
Tie
69
P1
70
P1
71
P1
72
Tie
73
P2
74
P1
75
P2
76
P1
77
Tie
78
Tie
79
P2
80
P1
81
P2
82
P2
83
Tie
84
Tie
85
Tie
86
P1
87
Tie
88
Tie
89
Tie
90
Tie
91
P1
92
Tie
93
P1
94
Tie
95
P2
96
P2
97
Tie
98
P2
99
P1
100
Tie
101
Tie
102
Tie
103
Tie
104
P1
105
P1
106
P1
107
P1
108
P1
109
Tie
110
P1
111
P1
112
P2
113
P2
114
Tie
115
Tie
116
P2
117
Tie
118
P2
119
Tie
120
P2
121
P1
122
Tie
123
P2
124
P1
125
Tie
126
Tie
127
P2
128
Tie
129
Tie
130
P1
131
P1
132
P1
133
P2
134
P1
135
P1
136
Tie
137
P2
138
P2
139
Tie
140
P2
141
P1
142
P1
143
Tie
144
Tie
145
P2
146
P2
147
P1
148
P1