Back May 21, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #495

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 1,075.808 1,073.215 (-2.6)
50
-
44
Tie
138 total rounds
P1 Wins
36.2%
Ties
31.9%
P2 Wins
31.9%
o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Player 2
ELO: 1,019 1,022 (+2.6)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 6 points. With 94 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.4 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Rock 14
10.2%
Paper 50
36.5%
Scissors 73
53.3%

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Rock 48
35.0%
Paper 63
46.0%
Scissors 26
19.0%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
6
consecutive wins
o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
3
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 31.9%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
O3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
O3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
Tie
4
P1
5
Tie
6
P1
7
P1
8
P2
9
P2
10
P1
11
P1
12
P1
13
P2
14
Tie
15
Tie
16
Tie
17
Tie
18
Tie
19
P1
20
Tie
21
Tie
22
Tie
23
Tie
24
P2
25
Tie
26
P2
27
Tie
28
Tie
29
P2
30
Tie
31
P1
32
P2
33
P1
34
P1
35
Tie
36
P2
37
P2
38
P2
39
P1
40
P1
41
Tie
42
P2
43
P2
44
Tie
45
P1
46
Tie
47
P2
48
P1
49
P2
50
P2
51
Tie
52
P2
53
Tie
54
Tie
55
Tie
56
P2
57
P1
58
P2
59
P1
60
P1
61
Tie
62
P2
63
P1
64
P2
65
P2
66
P1
67
P1
68
P1
69
P2
70
P2
71
P2
72
Tie
73
P1
74
P2
75
P2
76
P1
77
P1
78
Tie
79
P1
80
P1
81
P1
82
P2
83
P1
84
Tie
85
Tie
86
P1
87
P2
88
P2
89
P2
90
P1
91
P1
92
P1
93
Tie
94
P1
95
Tie
96
P2
97
Tie
98
P2
99
P1
100
Tie
101
Tie
102
Tie
103
P2
104
P2
105
P1
106
P2
107
Tie
108
P1
109
P1
110
P2
111
P2
112
Tie
113
P2
114
P2
115
P2
116
P1
117
Tie
118
P2
119
P1
120
P1
121
Tie
122
P1
123
P1
124
P1
125
P1
126
P1
127
P1
128
Tie
129
P1
130
P1
131
P1
132
Tie
133
P2
134
Tie
135
P2
136
P2
137
P1