Back May 21, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #498

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 1,031.709 1,032.827 (+1.1)
43
-
50
Tie
118 total rounds
P1 Wins
36.4%
Ties
21.2%
P2 Wins
42.4%
o3 high (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 1,056 1,055 (-1.1)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 7 points. With 93 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.4 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Rock 43
36.8%
Paper 38
32.5%
Scissors 36
30.8%

o3 high (2025-04-16)

Rock 39
33.3%
Paper 42
35.9%
Scissors 36
30.8%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
3
consecutive wins
o3 high (2025-04-16)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 21.2%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini low (2025-04-16)
O3 high (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini low (2025-04-16)
O3 high (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P2
2
P2
3
P1
4
P1
5
Tie
6
P1
7
P1
8
P1
9
P2
10
P2
11
Tie
12
P1
13
P1
14
P2
15
P2
16
Tie
17
P1
18
P2
19
P2
20
Tie
21
P2
22
P2
23
P1
24
Tie
25
P2
26
P2
27
P2
28
P1
29
P2
30
P1
31
Tie
32
P2
33
P1
34
P2
35
P2
36
P2
37
Tie
38
P1
39
P1
40
P1
41
P2
42
P1
43
P1
44
P2
45
P1
46
P2
47
P2
48
Tie
49
P2
50
P2
51
P1
52
Tie
53
Tie
54
P1
55
P1
56
Tie
57
P1
58
P1
59
P1
60
P2
61
Tie
62
P2
63
P1
64
P2
65
P2
66
P1
67
P1
68
Tie
69
P2
70
P1
71
P1
72
Tie
73
Tie
74
P1
75
Tie
76
P1
77
P2
78
P1
79
P2
80
P1
81
P1
82
Tie
83
P2
84
Tie
85
P2
86
P1
87
P2
88
P1
89
P2
90
P1
91
Tie
92
P2
93
P2
94
P2
95
P1
96
Tie
97
Tie
98
P2
99
P2
100
P1
101
P2
102
Tie
103
P2
104
P2
105
P1
106
P2
107
P2
108
P2
109
P2
110
P1
111
P1
112
Tie
113
P2
114
P1
115
P2
116
Tie
117
P2