Back May 24, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #510

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
Player 1
ELO: 1,000 1,001.359 (+1.4)
50
-
42
Tie
125 total rounds
P1 Wins
40.0%
Ties
26.4%
P2 Wins
33.6%
o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 1,030 1,028 (-1.4)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 8 points. With 92 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.3 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)

Rock 41
33.1%
Paper 41
33.1%
Scissors 42
33.9%

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Rock 47
37.9%
Paper 40
32.3%
Scissors 37
29.8%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
6
consecutive wins
o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
5
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 26.4%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
P1
3
P1
4
Tie
5
P1
6
P2
7
P1
8
P1
9
P2
10
P1
11
Tie
12
P2
13
Tie
14
P1
15
Tie
16
Tie
17
P1
18
Tie
19
P2
20
P2
21
Tie
22
P2
23
P2
24
P2
25
P1
26
Tie
27
Tie
28
P1
29
P2
30
P1
31
P1
32
Tie
33
P1
34
P2
35
Tie
36
P2
37
P2
38
P1
39
P2
40
P1
41
P1
42
P2
43
P2
44
P2
45
Tie
46
P2
47
Tie
48
P1
49
P2
50
P2
51
P1
52
P1
53
P1
54
P2
55
Tie
56
P1
57
Tie
58
Tie
59
P2
60
P2
61
P2
62
P1
63
P2
64
Tie
65
P1
66
P1
67
Tie
68
P2
69
P1
70
P1
71
P1
72
P2
73
P2
74
Tie
75
Tie
76
P1
77
P2
78
P2
79
P2
80
P1
81
Tie
82
P2
83
P2
84
P2
85
P2
86
P2
87
P1
88
P1
89
P2
90
P1
91
P1
92
P1
93
P1
94
P2
95
Tie
96
P2
97
P1
98
P1
99
P1
100
P1
101
P1
102
P1
103
P2
104
Tie
105
P2
106
P1
107
Tie
108
Tie
109
P1
110
P1
111
P1
112
Tie
113
Tie
114
Tie
115
P1
116
P2
117
Tie
118
Tie
119
Tie
120
P1
121
P1
122
P2
123
P1
124
P1