Back May 24, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #515

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 998.688 1,000.138 (+1.5)
50
-
44
Tie
135 total rounds
P1 Wins
37.0%
Ties
30.4%
P2 Wins
32.6%
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
Player 2
ELO: 1,030 1,029 (-1.5)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 6 points. With 94 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.4 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Rock 62
46.3%
Paper 14
10.4%
Scissors 58
43.3%

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)

Rock 36
26.9%
Paper 48
35.8%
Scissors 50
37.3%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
3
consecutive wins
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
6
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 30.4%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P1
4
Tie
5
Tie
6
Tie
7
Tie
8
Tie
9
P2
10
P1
11
P2
12
P1
13
Tie
14
P2
15
P1
16
P2
17
P2
18
P1
19
P2
20
P2
21
P1
22
Tie
23
P1
24
P1
25
P1
26
Tie
27
P1
28
P1
29
Tie
30
P1
31
P1
32
P2
33
P1
34
P1
35
P1
36
Tie
37
P2
38
Tie
39
P1
40
P2
41
Tie
42
Tie
43
Tie
44
P2
45
P1
46
P1
47
Tie
48
P2
49
Tie
50
Tie
51
P1
52
P1
53
Tie
54
P1
55
P1
56
P2
57
P2
58
P2
59
P2
60
P2
61
P2
62
P1
63
P2
64
P1
65
P2
66
Tie
67
Tie
68
P2
69
Tie
70
P2
71
P2
72
P2
73
P2
74
P2
75
Tie
76
P2
77
Tie
78
Tie
79
P1
80
P2
81
P1
82
P1
83
P2
84
P1
85
Tie
86
Tie
87
P2
88
P1
89
Tie
90
Tie
91
P1
92
P2
93
P1
94
P2
95
Tie
96
P2
97
Tie
98
P2
99
P1
100
P1
101
Tie
102
Tie
103
P2
104
Tie
105
Tie
106
P1
107
P2
108
P2
109
P1
110
Tie
111
Tie
112
P1
113
P1
114
Tie
115
P1
116
P1
117
P1
118
Tie
119
P1
120
P2
121
P1
122
P2
123
P1
124
P2
125
P2
126
P2
127
P1
128
P1
129
P1
130
P2
131
P1
132
P2
133
P1
134
P1