Back May 25, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #522

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
Player 1
ELO: 1,001.359 1,003.301 (+1.9)
50
-
43
Tie
125 total rounds
P1 Wins
40.0%
Ties
25.6%
P2 Wins
34.4%
o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 1,044 1,042 (-1.9)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 7 points. With 93 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.4 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)

Rock 38
30.6%
Paper 43
34.7%
Scissors 43
34.7%

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Rock 43
34.7%
Paper 43
34.7%
Scissors 38
30.6%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
4
consecutive wins
o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 25.6%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
O4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
O4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P1
2
P1
3
P1
4
P2
5
P1
6
P1
7
Tie
8
P2
9
P1
10
P1
11
P1
12
P1
13
P2
14
P2
15
P2
16
P2
17
P1
18
P2
19
P1
20
P2
21
Tie
22
Tie
23
Tie
24
Tie
25
P2
26
P1
27
Tie
28
P2
29
P2
30
P1
31
P2
32
Tie
33
Tie
34
P2
35
Tie
36
P1
37
P1
38
P2
39
P1
40
P2
41
P2
42
P1
43
P2
44
P1
45
P1
46
P1
47
P1
48
P2
49
P1
50
Tie
51
Tie
52
P1
53
P1
54
P2
55
Tie
56
P2
57
P2
58
Tie
59
P2
60
P2
61
Tie
62
P2
63
Tie
64
P2
65
P1
66
P1
67
P1
68
P1
69
P2
70
P2
71
P2
72
Tie
73
Tie
74
Tie
75
P2
76
P2
77
P1
78
P1
79
P1
80
P2
81
P1
82
P1
83
P2
84
P2
85
Tie
86
P1
87
Tie
88
Tie
89
P1
90
Tie
91
P1
92
Tie
93
P1
94
P1
95
P1
96
P2
97
Tie
98
Tie
99
Tie
100
P2
101
P2
102
P2
103
P2
104
P1
105
P1
106
P1
107
P2
108
P2
109
Tie
110
P2
111
P1
112
P1
113
P1
114
P1
115
Tie
116
Tie
117
P1
118
Tie
119
P1
120
P2
121
P1
122
Tie
123
P2
124
P1