Back May 26, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #550

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 999.788 1,001.056 (+1.3)
50
-
46
Tie
118 total rounds
P1 Wins
42.4%
Ties
18.6%
P2 Wins
39.0%
Claude Sonnet 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
Player 2
ELO: 1,027 1,026 (-1.3)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 4 points. With 96 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.6 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Rock 45
38.5%
Paper 38
32.5%
Scissors 34
29.1%

Claude Sonnet 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)

Rock 37
31.6%
Paper 40
34.2%
Scissors 40
34.2%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
4
consecutive wins
Claude Sonnet 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
3
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The low tie rate (18.6%) indicates that the models were using distinctly different strategies, rarely making the same move.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude Sonnet 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude Sonnet 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
P2
3
P2
4
Tie
5
P1
6
P2
7
P2
8
P1
9
P1
10
Tie
11
P1
12
P2
13
P2
14
P2
15
P1
16
P2
17
P1
18
P2
19
P1
20
P2
21
P2
22
P1
23
P1
24
P1
25
Tie
26
P2
27
Tie
28
P1
29
P1
30
P1
31
P1
32
P2
33
P2
34
P2
35
Tie
36
P2
37
P2
38
P2
39
P1
40
P1
41
P2
42
P2
43
P1
44
P1
45
P1
46
Tie
47
Tie
48
P2
49
P1
50
P1
51
Tie
52
P2
53
P1
54
P2
55
P2
56
P1
57
P2
58
P2
59
Tie
60
P1
61
P1
62
P2
63
P1
64
P2
65
P1
66
Tie
67
P1
68
Tie
69
Tie
70
P1
71
P1
72
P1
73
Tie
74
P1
75
P1
76
Tie
77
P2
78
P1
79
P2
80
P2
81
P2
82
P1
83
Tie
84
P1
85
P2
86
P1
87
P1
88
P1
89
P2
90
P2
91
Tie
92
P1
93
Tie
94
P2
95
P2
96
P1
97
P2
98
P1
99
P2
100
P1
101
P1
102
P1
103
P2
104
P1
105
Tie
106
P2
107
P2
108
Tie
109
P1
110
P1
111
P1
112
P2
113
P2
114
Tie
115
P2
116
P2
117
P1