Back May 27, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #566

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
Player 1
ELO: 1,031.37 1,034.43 (+3.1)
50
-
47
Tie
142 total rounds
P1 Wins
35.2%
Ties
31.7%
P2 Wins
33.1%
o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 1,099 1,096 (-3.1)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 3 points. With 97 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.6 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)

Rock 41
29.1%
Paper 52
36.9%
Scissors 48
34.0%

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Rock 53
37.6%
Paper 46
32.6%
Scissors 42
29.8%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
3
consecutive wins
o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
5
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 31.7%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
O4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude Opus 4 Thinking (2025-05-14)
O4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
P1
3
P1
4
P1
5
P2
6
Tie
7
P1
8
P2
9
P1
10
P2
11
P1
12
Tie
13
P2
14
P2
15
Tie
16
P2
17
Tie
18
P1
19
Tie
20
P2
21
P1
22
P1
23
P2
24
P2
25
P2
26
P2
27
P2
28
P1
29
P1
30
P2
31
P1
32
P1
33
Tie
34
Tie
35
Tie
36
Tie
37
Tie
38
P1
39
P1
40
P2
41
P1
42
P1
43
P2
44
Tie
45
P1
46
Tie
47
P1
48
Tie
49
P1
50
P1
51
P1
52
P2
53
P2
54
P1
55
P2
56
P1
57
P1
58
P2
59
P1
60
P2
61
P2
62
P1
63
P2
64
P2
65
P2
66
P1
67
P1
68
P2
69
P2
70
P2
71
Tie
72
P2
73
P1
74
P1
75
Tie
76
Tie
77
Tie
78
P2
79
P2
80
P2
81
P1
82
Tie
83
Tie
84
Tie
85
Tie
86
P2
87
P1
88
P1
89
P1
90
Tie
91
Tie
92
P1
93
P2
94
Tie
95
P1
96
P2
97
P2
98
P1
99
P2
100
P1
101
P1
102
P1
103
Tie
104
P2
105
P1
106
P1
107
Tie
108
Tie
109
P2
110
P2
111
P2
112
P1
113
P1
114
P2
115
Tie
116
P2
117
Tie
118
Tie
119
Tie
120
Tie
121
Tie
122
P2
123
P2
124
P2
125
Tie
126
Tie
127
Tie
128
Tie
129
Tie
130
Tie
131
P1
132
Tie
133
P1
134
Tie
135
Tie
136
P2
137
P1
138
Tie
139
P1
140
P2
141
P1