Back May 28, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #568

o3-mini high (2025-01-31)
Player 1
ELO: 1,107.725 1,107.167 (-0.6)
48
-
50
Tie
126 total rounds
P1 Wins
38.1%
Ties
22.2%
P2 Wins
39.7%
o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 1,096 1,096 (+0.6)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 2 points. With 98 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.7 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o3-mini high (2025-01-31)

Rock 40
32.0%
Paper 49
39.2%
Scissors 36
28.8%

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Rock 42
33.6%
Paper 40
32.0%
Scissors 43
34.4%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o3-mini high (2025-01-31)
3
consecutive wins
o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
3
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 22.2%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O3-mini high (2025-01-31)
O4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O3-mini high (2025-01-31)
O4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P2
2
P1
3
Tie
4
P2
5
P2
6
P2
7
Tie
8
P2
9
P1
10
Tie
11
P2
12
P1
13
P1
14
P1
15
P2
16
P2
17
P1
18
Tie
19
P2
20
P1
21
P1
22
P1
23
P2
24
P1
25
P2
26
P2
27
P2
28
P1
29
P1
30
P2
31
P1
32
Tie
33
P2
34
P1
35
P2
36
Tie
37
P1
38
P2
39
P2
40
P1
41
P2
42
P2
43
P1
44
P2
45
Tie
46
P1
47
P2
48
Tie
49
P1
50
Tie
51
P1
52
P2
53
P2
54
P2
55
Tie
56
P1
57
P1
58
Tie
59
P2
60
P1
61
P2
62
P1
63
P2
64
P2
65
P2
66
Tie
67
Tie
68
Tie
69
Tie
70
Tie
71
P1
72
P2
73
P1
74
P1
75
P2
76
P1
77
Tie
78
P2
79
P1
80
P1
81
P2
82
P2
83
P2
84
P1
85
P1
86
P2
87
P1
88
P1
89
P2
90
Tie
91
P1
92
P2
93
P1
94
P2
95
P1
96
P2
97
P1
98
Tie
99
P2
100
P2
101
P2
102
P1
103
P1
104
Tie
105
P2
106
P1
107
P1
108
P2
109
Tie
110
Tie
111
P2
112
Tie
113
P1
114
P1
115
P1
116
Tie
117
P1
118
P2
119
P1
120
P2
121
Tie
122
Tie
123
Tie
124
P1
125
P2