Back Mar 03, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #286

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Player 1
ELO: 986.665 990.844 (+4.2)
48
-
50
Tie
165 total rounds
P1 Wins
29.1%
Ties
40.6%
P2 Wins
30.3%
o1-mini (2024-09-12)
Player 2
ELO: 1,080 1,075 (-4.2)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 2 points. With 98 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.7 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Rock 60
36.6%
Paper 68
41.5%
Scissors 36
22.0%

o1-mini (2024-09-12)

Rock 41
25.0%
Paper 68
41.5%
Scissors 55
33.5%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
5
consecutive wins
o1-mini (2024-09-12)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The high tie rate (40.6%) suggests that both models may have been using similar strategies or were effectively countering each other's moves.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O3-mini low (2025-01-31)
O1-mini (2024-09-12)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O3-mini low (2025-01-31)
O1-mini (2024-09-12)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P2
4
P1
5
Tie
6
P1
7
P1
8
P1
9
P2
10
P2
11
P1
12
P2
13
P2
14
P1
15
P1
16
P1
17
P2
18
P1
19
Tie
20
P2
21
P1
22
P2
23
P2
24
P2
25
P1
26
P2
27
P2
28
P2
29
P1
30
P2
31
Tie
32
Tie
33
Tie
34
Tie
35
Tie
36
P2
37
Tie
38
Tie
39
Tie
40
P2
41
Tie
42
P1
43
P1
44
Tie
45
Tie
46
Tie
47
P2
48
P2
49
Tie
50
Tie
51
P2
52
Tie
53
Tie
54
Tie
55
P2
56
P2
57
P1
58
Tie
59
P2
60
P2
61
Tie
62
P2
63
P1
64
Tie
65
Tie
66
Tie
67
P1
68
P2
69
Tie
70
Tie
71
Tie
72
P1
73
P2
74
Tie
75
Tie
76
Tie
77
Tie
78
P1
79
Tie
80
Tie
81
P2
82
P1
83
P2
84
P2
85
P1
86
P1
87
P2
88
P2
89
Tie
90
P1
91
P1
92
P1
93
P2
94
P1
95
P2
96
P1
97
Tie
98
Tie
99
Tie
100
Tie
101
Tie
102
Tie
103
P1
104
Tie
105
Tie
106
P1
107
Tie
108
Tie
109
Tie
110
P1
111
P2
112
Tie
113
Tie
114
Tie
115
Tie
116
Tie
117
P2
118
P2
119
P1
120
P2
121
Tie
122
Tie
123
P1
124
P1
125
Tie
126
Tie
127
Tie
128
P1
129
P1
130
Tie
131
P1
132
P2
133
Tie
134
P1
135
P2
136
P1
137
P1
138
P1
139
P1
140
P1
141
P2
142
P1
143
P1
144
Tie
145
P1
146
Tie
147
P2
148
P2
149
P2
150
P2
151
Tie
152
P1
153
Tie
154
Tie
155
Tie
156
Tie
157
P2
158
P1
159
P2
160
P1
161
P2
162
P2
163
P2
164
P2