Back May 14, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #409

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
Player 1
ELO: 1,028.032 1,026.885 (-1.1)
49
-
50
Tie
162 total rounds
P1 Wins
30.2%
Ties
38.9%
P2 Wins
30.9%
o3-mini high (2025-01-31)
Player 2
ELO: 1,003 1,004 (+1.1)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 1 points. With 99 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.8 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)

Rock 31
19.3%
Paper 63
39.1%
Scissors 67
41.6%

o3-mini high (2025-01-31)

Rock 53
32.9%
Paper 9
5.6%
Scissors 99
61.5%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
4
consecutive wins
o3-mini high (2025-01-31)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 38.9%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
O3-mini high (2025-01-31)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
O3-mini high (2025-01-31)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P2
4
P1
5
P2
6
P2
7
P1
8
Tie
9
P1
10
Tie
11
Tie
12
P2
13
P1
14
P2
15
P1
16
Tie
17
P2
18
P1
19
P2
20
P1
21
P2
22
Tie
23
P2
24
P1
25
P2
26
P1
27
P1
28
Tie
29
Tie
30
P1
31
P2
32
Tie
33
P2
34
Tie
35
P1
36
Tie
37
P1
38
P2
39
P2
40
Tie
41
P2
42
Tie
43
Tie
44
P2
45
P1
46
Tie
47
P2
48
P1
49
P1
50
Tie
51
Tie
52
P2
53
P1
54
Tie
55
P2
56
Tie
57
Tie
58
Tie
59
Tie
60
P1
61
P2
62
P2
63
P2
64
P2
65
P1
66
Tie
67
P2
68
P1
69
P2
70
Tie
71
P1
72
Tie
73
Tie
74
P2
75
P1
76
Tie
77
Tie
78
Tie
79
P1
80
P1
81
Tie
82
P2
83
Tie
84
P1
85
P1
86
P1
87
Tie
88
Tie
89
P2
90
P1
91
P1
92
P2
93
Tie
94
Tie
95
P2
96
P1
97
Tie
98
Tie
99
P2
100
P1
101
P1
102
Tie
103
P2
104
P2
105
P1
106
P1
107
P1
108
P1
109
P2
110
P2
111
Tie
112
P2
113
Tie
114
Tie
115
P2
116
Tie
117
P1
118
Tie
119
P1
120
P2
121
Tie
122
Tie
123
P1
124
P1
125
P2
126
Tie
127
Tie
128
P2
129
Tie
130
Tie
131
Tie
132
Tie
133
Tie
134
P2
135
P1
136
Tie
137
P2
138
P1
139
Tie
140
Tie
141
P2
142
P1
143
Tie
144
P1
145
P2
146
P1
147
Tie
148
Tie
149
P1
150
P2
151
P2
152
P1
153
P1
154
Tie
155
P2
156
P1
157
Tie
158
P2
159
P2
160
Tie
161
P2

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