Back May 21, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #483

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 1,032.576 1,031.753 (-0.8)
47
-
50
Tie
121 total rounds
P1 Wins
38.8%
Ties
19.8%
P2 Wins
41.3%
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 2
ELO: 1,015 1,015 (+0.8)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 3 points. With 97 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.6 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)

Rock 25
20.8%
Paper 40
33.3%
Scissors 55
45.8%

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Rock 43
35.8%
Paper 55
45.8%
Scissors 22
18.3%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
3
consecutive wins
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The low tie rate (19.8%) indicates that the models were using distinctly different strategies, rarely making the same move.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P2
2
P1
3
P2
4
P1
5
P1
6
P2
7
Tie
8
Tie
9
P1
10
P2
11
Tie
12
P1
13
P2
14
P1
15
P1
16
P2
17
P2
18
Tie
19
P1
20
Tie
21
P1
22
P2
23
P2
24
Tie
25
P2
26
P1
27
P1
28
P2
29
P2
30
P2
31
P2
32
P1
33
Tie
34
P2
35
P1
36
P1
37
P2
38
P2
39
P1
40
P2
41
Tie
42
P2
43
P2
44
P2
45
P1
46
Tie
47
P1
48
P2
49
Tie
50
P2
51
P2
52
P2
53
Tie
54
P1
55
Tie
56
P1
57
P1
58
P2
59
P1
60
P1
61
P2
62
Tie
63
P1
64
P1
65
Tie
66
P2
67
P1
68
P2
69
P1
70
P1
71
P2
72
P2
73
P2
74
P1
75
P2
76
P2
77
P1
78
P1
79
Tie
80
P1
81
P1
82
Tie
83
P2
84
P1
85
P1
86
P1
87
P2
88
Tie
89
P1
90
Tie
91
P1
92
P2
93
P2
94
P2
95
P1
96
P2
97
Tie
98
P1
99
P2
100
P1
101
Tie
102
Tie
103
P2
104
P1
105
P2
106
P2
107
P1
108
P1
109
P2
110
Tie
111
P1
112
P2
113
P2
114
P1
115
P2
116
P2
117
P1
118
P1
119
Tie
120
P2

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Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 1
VS
o4-mini low (2025-04-16)
Player 2
39
136 rounds
50
Tie Statistical
View details