Back Mar 01, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #15

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
Player 1
ELO: 969.881 971.265 (+1.4)
50
-
45
Tie
167 total rounds
P1 Wins
29.9%
Ties
43.1%
P2 Wins
26.9%
o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Player 2
ELO: 1,000 999 (-1.4)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 5 points. With 95 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.5 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)

Rock 18
10.8%
Paper 106
63.9%
Scissors 42
25.3%

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Rock 43
25.9%
Paper 76
45.8%
Scissors 47
28.3%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
4
consecutive wins
o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The high tie rate (43.1%) suggests that both models may have been using similar strategies or were effectively countering each other's moves.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
O3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude 3.5 Sonnet (2024-10-22)
O3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P1
4
Tie
5
P2
6
P1
7
Tie
8
P1
9
P2
10
P1
11
P2
12
Tie
13
P2
14
Tie
15
P1
16
P1
17
Tie
18
P2
19
P1
20
P1
21
P2
22
Tie
23
Tie
24
P1
25
P2
26
Tie
27
P1
28
P1
29
P1
30
P2
31
P1
32
P1
33
P1
34
P1
35
P2
36
Tie
37
P1
38
Tie
39
Tie
40
P1
41
P2
42
P2
43
P1
44
P2
45
P1
46
Tie
47
P1
48
P2
49
Tie
50
P1
51
P2
52
Tie
53
Tie
54
Tie
55
P1
56
P2
57
P2
58
P1
59
P2
60
Tie
61
Tie
62
Tie
63
Tie
64
P1
65
Tie
66
Tie
67
P1
68
Tie
69
Tie
70
Tie
71
P1
72
P1
73
P2
74
Tie
75
P2
76
Tie
77
P1
78
Tie
79
Tie
80
P1
81
P1
82
Tie
83
Tie
84
Tie
85
Tie
86
P2
87
P1
88
Tie
89
P1
90
P2
91
Tie
92
P2
93
Tie
94
Tie
95
P2
96
P1
97
Tie
98
Tie
99
Tie
100
P2
101
P2
102
Tie
103
Tie
104
P2
105
Tie
106
P2
107
P2
108
P1
109
P2
110
Tie
111
P1
112
Tie
113
Tie
114
P1
115
Tie
116
Tie
117
P1
118
P1
119
P1
120
P2
121
P2
122
P1
123
P1
124
Tie
125
Tie
126
Tie
127
P1
128
Tie
129
P2
130
P2
131
Tie
132
P2
133
P2
134
P2
135
Tie
136
P1
137
P2
138
P2
139
P2
140
P2
141
P1
142
Tie
143
Tie
144
P1
145
P2
146
P2
147
P1
148
Tie
149
Tie
150
P1
151
Tie
152
P2
153
Tie
154
Tie
155
Tie
156
P1
157
Tie
158
P2
159
P2
160
Tie
161
Tie
162
Tie
163
Tie
164
Tie
165
Tie
166
P1

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