Back May 10, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #308

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 1,000 999.092 (-0.9)
50
-
38
Tie
115 total rounds
P1 Wins
43.5%
Ties
23.5%
P2 Wins
33.0%
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 2
ELO: 980 981 (+0.9)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 12 points. With 88 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.0 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Rock 13
11.4%
Paper 33
28.9%
Scissors 68
59.6%

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Rock 45
39.5%
Paper 53
46.5%
Scissors 16
14.0%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
8
consecutive wins
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
5
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 23.5%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P2
2
P1
3
Tie
4
Tie
5
Tie
6
P2
7
P1
8
P2
9
P2
10
P1
11
P1
12
P1
13
P2
14
P2
15
P2
16
P2
17
P2
18
Tie
19
P2
20
P2
21
P1
22
Tie
23
P2
24
P2
25
P2
26
P1
27
P2
28
P2
29
P2
30
P1
31
P1
32
P1
33
P1
34
P1
35
P1
36
P1
37
P1
38
Tie
39
P2
40
P2
41
Tie
42
P1
43
P1
44
P1
45
P1
46
Tie
47
P2
48
P2
49
Tie
50
P2
51
P1
52
P1
53
P2
54
Tie
55
P1
56
P1
57
Tie
58
P1
59
Tie
60
P2
61
P1
62
P2
63
P1
64
Tie
65
P1
66
P1
67
P1
68
P2
69
P1
70
P2
71
P2
72
Tie
73
P2
74
P2
75
P1
76
P1
77
P2
78
P1
79
P2
80
P1
81
Tie
82
P1
83
P1
84
P2
85
P1
86
Tie
87
Tie
88
P1
89
Tie
90
P1
91
P2
92
P1
93
P1
94
P1
95
P1
96
Tie
97
P1
98
P2
99
P1
100
P2
101
Tie
102
Tie
103
Tie
104
P2
105
Tie
106
P1
107
Tie
108
Tie
109
P1
110
P2
111
P1
112
P1
113
Tie
114
P1

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