Back May 10, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #309

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 999.092 998.268 (-0.8)
43
-
50
Tie
120 total rounds
P1 Wins
35.8%
Ties
22.5%
P2 Wins
41.7%
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 2
ELO: 981 982 (+0.8)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 7 points. With 93 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.4 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)

Rock 37
31.1%
Paper 41
34.5%
Scissors 41
34.5%

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Rock 38
31.9%
Paper 38
31.9%
Scissors 43
36.1%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini high (2025-04-16)
3
consecutive wins
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
6
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 22.5%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini high (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P2
2
Tie
3
P1
4
Tie
5
P1
6
P2
7
P2
8
Tie
9
P1
10
P1
11
P2
12
P1
13
P1
14
P2
15
P2
16
P2
17
P1
18
P1
19
P1
20
Tie
21
P1
22
P2
23
P1
24
P2
25
P1
26
P2
27
P2
28
P1
29
Tie
30
P1
31
P1
32
P1
33
P2
34
P2
35
P1
36
Tie
37
P2
38
P1
39
P2
40
P1
41
P1
42
P1
43
P2
44
P2
45
P2
46
Tie
47
P2
48
P1
49
Tie
50
P1
51
P1
52
Tie
53
P2
54
P1
55
P1
56
P2
57
P1
58
P2
59
P2
60
Tie
61
P2
62
Tie
63
P1
64
P2
65
P1
66
P2
67
P1
68
Tie
69
P2
70
P2
71
Tie
72
Tie
73
P2
74
P1
75
P2
76
P1
77
Tie
78
Tie
79
P2
80
P2
81
Tie
82
P1
83
Tie
84
P1
85
P2
86
P1
87
P2
88
P2
89
Tie
90
P2
91
P1
92
P2
93
P1
94
P2
95
P1
96
Tie
97
P2
98
P1
99
P2
100
Tie
101
Tie
102
P2
103
P1
104
P2
105
Tie
106
P1
107
P1
108
P2
109
Tie
110
Tie
111
P2
112
P1
113
Tie
114
P2
115
P2
116
P2
117
P2
118
P2
119
P2

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