Back May 10, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #312

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 1
ELO: 979.545 980.441 (+0.9)
48
-
50
Tie
139 total rounds
P1 Wins
34.5%
Ties
29.5%
P2 Wins
36.0%
o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 999 998 (-0.9)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 2 points. With 98 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.7 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Rock 45
32.6%
Paper 60
43.5%
Scissors 33
23.9%

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Rock 14
10.1%
Paper 45
32.6%
Scissors 79
57.2%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
5
consecutive wins
o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
8
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 29.5%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P2
4
Tie
5
P2
6
Tie
7
P1
8
Tie
9
P1
10
P1
11
P2
12
Tie
13
Tie
14
P1
15
P2
16
P1
17
P1
18
P1
19
P1
20
P1
21
Tie
22
Tie
23
P1
24
Tie
25
P1
26
P2
27
P2
28
Tie
29
Tie
30
Tie
31
P2
32
P2
33
P1
34
P2
35
P1
36
P2
37
P1
38
P1
39
P2
40
P2
41
Tie
42
P1
43
P2
44
P1
45
P2
46
P2
47
P2
48
P1
49
Tie
50
Tie
51
P1
52
P1
53
P1
54
Tie
55
P2
56
P2
57
P2
58
P1
59
P2
60
Tie
61
Tie
62
P1
63
P1
64
P2
65
P1
66
P1
67
Tie
68
Tie
69
P2
70
Tie
71
Tie
72
Tie
73
Tie
74
P2
75
P2
76
P1
77
P2
78
P1
79
P2
80
Tie
81
P1
82
P1
83
P1
84
Tie
85
P2
86
P1
87
Tie
88
P1
89
P2
90
P1
91
P2
92
P2
93
P1
94
Tie
95
P1
96
P2
97
P2
98
P1
99
Tie
100
P1
101
P1
102
P2
103
P2
104
P1
105
P1
106
P2
107
P2
108
P2
109
P2
110
P2
111
P2
112
P2
113
P2
114
P1
115
Tie
116
P2
117
P1
118
P1
119
Tie
120
P1
121
Tie
122
Tie
123
Tie
124
Tie
125
P2
126
P2
127
Tie
128
Tie
129
Tie
130
P2
131
P2
132
Tie
133
P2
134
P1
135
P1
136
P2
137
P1
138
P2

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