Back May 14, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #396

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 1
ELO: 998.002 998.748 (+0.7)
39
-
50
Tie
117 total rounds
P1 Wins
33.3%
Ties
23.9%
P2 Wins
42.7%
o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Player 2
ELO: 1,014 1,013 (-0.7)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 11 points. With 89 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.1 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Rock 24
20.7%
Paper 58
50.0%
Scissors 34
29.3%

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Rock 33
28.4%
Paper 11
9.5%
Scissors 72
62.1%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
5
consecutive wins
o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
5
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 23.9%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
Tie
2
Tie
3
P2
4
Tie
5
P1
6
Tie
7
P1
8
P1
9
Tie
10
P2
11
P2
12
P1
13
P2
14
Tie
15
P2
16
P1
17
P2
18
P1
19
P2
20
P1
21
P2
22
Tie
23
P1
24
P1
25
P2
26
P2
27
Tie
28
P2
29
P1
30
P2
31
P1
32
P1
33
P2
34
P1
35
P2
36
P1
37
P2
38
Tie
39
P2
40
Tie
41
P2
42
P1
43
P1
44
P1
45
P1
46
P1
47
Tie
48
P1
49
P1
50
P2
51
P2
52
P2
53
P1
54
P2
55
Tie
56
P1
57
P2
58
P2
59
P2
60
Tie
61
P2
62
Tie
63
P2
64
Tie
65
P1
66
P1
67
Tie
68
P1
69
P2
70
P1
71
P2
72
Tie
73
Tie
74
Tie
75
Tie
76
Tie
77
P1
78
Tie
79
Tie
80
P2
81
P1
82
P2
83
P2
84
P1
85
Tie
86
P1
87
Tie
88
P1
89
P2
90
P2
91
P2
92
P1
93
P2
94
P1
95
P2
96
P2
97
P1
98
P2
99
P2
100
P2
101
P2
102
P2
103
Tie
104
P1
105
P1
106
P2
107
P2
108
P2
109
P2
110
P2
111
P1
112
P2
113
Tie
114
P1
115
P2
116
P2

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