Back May 20, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #478

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Player 1
ELO: 1,078.845 1,075.808 (-3.0)
50
-
46
Tie
135 total rounds
P1 Wins
37.0%
Ties
28.9%
P2 Wins
34.1%
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
Player 2
ELO: 1,012 1,015 (+3.0)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 4 points. With 96 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.6 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)

Rock 33
24.6%
Paper 44
32.8%
Scissors 57
42.5%

Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Rock 48
35.8%
Paper 45
33.6%
Scissors 41
30.6%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
3
consecutive wins
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)
4
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 28.9%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O4-mini medium (2025-04-16)
Claude 3.7 Sonnet (2025-02-19)

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P1
2
Tie
3
Tie
4
P1
5
P2
6
Tie
7
Tie
8
Tie
9
P2
10
Tie
11
Tie
12
P2
13
Tie
14
P1
15
P1
16
Tie
17
P2
18
P1
19
P2
20
P2
21
P1
22
P1
23
P2
24
P2
25
P2
26
P2
27
P1
28
P1
29
P2
30
P2
31
P2
32
P1
33
Tie
34
Tie
35
Tie
36
P1
37
P2
38
P1
39
P1
40
P1
41
Tie
42
P2
43
Tie
44
Tie
45
Tie
46
Tie
47
P1
48
P2
49
Tie
50
P1
51
P2
52
Tie
53
Tie
54
P1
55
P1
56
Tie
57
P2
58
P1
59
P1
60
Tie
61
Tie
62
Tie
63
Tie
64
P1
65
P1
66
P2
67
Tie
68
P2
69
Tie
70
P2
71
P1
72
P2
73
P1
74
P2
75
P1
76
P2
77
P2
78
P1
79
P1
80
P2
81
P2
82
Tie
83
P1
84
P1
85
P2
86
P2
87
P2
88
P1
89
Tie
90
P1
91
P1
92
P2
93
P1
94
P1
95
Tie
96
P1
97
P1
98
P2
99
P1
100
Tie
101
P1
102
P2
103
P2
104
Tie
105
P1
106
P2
107
P2
108
Tie
109
Tie
110
P2
111
P1
112
P2
113
P2
114
P1
115
P1
116
P2
117
P1
118
Tie
119
Tie
120
P2
121
P2
122
P1
123
Tie
124
P2
125
P1
126
P2
127
P2
128
P1
129
P1
130
P1
131
Tie
132
P1
133
P2
134
P1

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