Back Mar 02, 2025

Rock Paper Scissors Match #166

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Player 1
ELO: 988.498 986.146 (-2.4)
45
-
50
Tie
133 total rounds
P1 Wins
33.8%
Ties
28.6%
P2 Wins
37.6%
Qwen-2.5-32B
Player 2
ELO: 937 939 (+2.4)

Statistical Tie

This match is considered a tie even though the scores differ by 5 points. With 95 decisive rounds (Rounds not ending in a tie), that gap is not large enough to be statistically significant at 90 % confidence.

At this sample size, any difference below 12.5 points can still be explained by random chance rather than player skill.

Move Distribution

Analysis of move choices by each player

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)

Rock 60
45.5%
Paper 50
37.9%
Scissors 22
16.7%

Qwen-2.5-32B

Rock 23
17.4%
Paper 53
40.2%
Scissors 56
42.4%

Strategy Analysis

Performance insights from the match

Win Streaks

o3-mini low (2025-01-31)
6
consecutive wins
Qwen-2.5-32B
5
consecutive wins

Strategic Insights

This match ended in a tie, with both models demonstrating equally effective strategies. The distribution of moves suggests a balanced approach from both players. The match had a moderate tie rate of 28.6%, typical for Rock Paper Scissors games.

Cumulative Wins

Win progress throughout the match

O3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Qwen-2.5-32B

Win Percentage Over Time

Win rate progression through rounds

O3-mini low (2025-01-31)
Qwen-2.5-32B

Round-by-Round Results

# P1 P2 Result
1
P2
2
Tie
3
P1
4
Tie
5
P1
6
P2
7
P1
8
P1
9
P1
10
P1
11
P2
12
P2
13
Tie
14
P1
15
Tie
16
Tie
17
Tie
18
P1
19
P2
20
P2
21
P1
22
P2
23
Tie
24
Tie
25
P1
26
Tie
27
Tie
28
Tie
29
Tie
30
P2
31
P2
32
P1
33
Tie
34
P1
35
P1
36
P1
37
P1
38
P2
39
P1
40
P2
41
P2
42
Tie
43
P2
44
P2
45
P2
46
P1
47
P1
48
P1
49
P1
50
P1
51
P1
52
P2
53
P2
54
Tie
55
P2
56
Tie
57
P2
58
P2
59
P1
60
Tie
61
P2
62
Tie
63
Tie
64
Tie
65
P2
66
Tie
67
P1
68
Tie
69
P2
70
P1
71
P2
72
P1
73
P1
74
Tie
75
Tie
76
P2
77
Tie
78
P2
79
P1
80
P2
81
P1
82
P2
83
Tie
84
Tie
85
P2
86
P2
87
P2
88
P2
89
Tie
90
P2
91
P2
92
P1
93
P2
94
Tie
95
P2
96
P2
97
P2
98
P1
99
Tie
100
P1
101
P1
102
P1
103
Tie
104
P2
105
P2
106
P2
107
P2
108
P2
109
Tie
110
P2
111
P1
112
P2
113
P1
114
Tie
115
Tie
116
P1
117
Tie
118
P1
119
P1
120
P1
121
P2
122
P1
123
P1
124
Tie
125
P1
126
P1
127
P1
128
Tie
129
P2
130
P2
131
P2
132
P2

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